The point of view of climate pessimists. year: the Sagrada Familia Cathedral in Barcelona will be completed

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The world around us is changing not every 100 years, but every year. Our watches, glasses, cars and apartments have become "smart" for a long time, and you want to know what awaits us next?

website collected for you 11 scientific ideas about how this world of the future will still be.

Nature becomes an attraction

Eco-tours, eco-flights, eco-hotels, eco-entertainments - more and more people began to prefer traveling with the prefix "eco". You stay in a luxury hotel or bungalow, but also teach English to kids at a local school, take care of elephants, or help pick pears at a fruit farm.

Everything natural is gradually becoming more expensive and appreciated more and more, and plots of land where nature and traditions have been preserved become attractions.

We will live long

Medical technology is gradually reaching a completely new level. With the help of gadgets, we measure the pulse, sugar level, and we can also see our health indicators on the smartphone screen. Plastic surgery is becoming less popular, everything is done with injections, which are simple and almost painless.

All these frightening medical units will gradually decrease to the size of gadgets, and the number of functions will only increase. And in order to conduct a complete diagnosis of your body, you will not need to go to the doctor and take a bunch of tests, a mobile device will be enough.

Any item can be printed

Parts for cars, musical instruments, furniture and even a collection fashion clothes- what have not been printed on 3D printers since their invention. For example, in Southern California there is giant printer capable of printing a whole house with electricity and water supply.

Printing construction is already in full swing, and in the future everyone will be able to create a dacha, or a car, or a boat for fishing, whatever. To do this, it will be enough to download a sketch from the Internet.

Virtual reality will replace textbooks

You can visit the very center of a historical battle, see the Big Bang with your own eyes or attend a lecture by a university in another country without leaving your home. Virtual reality is developing at a frantic pace and will be used in education in the future, preventing people from getting bored in lectures or falling asleep in class at school.

Of course, nothing can replace a real journey with all its emotions and difficulties, but if you had a free minute during the day, then why not, for example, make bike tour on UK roads or not to visit gallery in the Louvre ?

We will treat garbage in a civilized way

Little by little, but we are moving towards this goal. The waste sorting system is not yet as developed as we would like, but it will certainly take root. Shops today household appliances and clothes offer to exchange old things for discounts. Gradually, more and more waste collection and sorting points appear, the processing of which is more environmentally friendly and economical. In general, there are chances!

Drones will be everywhere

The main problem remains in the inability of most of the world to these machines. But gradually, gas stations for electric vehicles have already begun to adapt, and prices for such a vehicle are falling. billion to 9.7 billion. Two things influenced this forecast:

The development of medicine. The invention of new drugs and the improvement of medical equipment increase the duration and quality of life.
Healthy lifestyle. More and more people give up bad habits and junk food and prefer sports.

Energy will be cheap and renewable

Recently, the Energy Institute conducted a study that showed that in 2050 we will receive 80% of all energy from renewable sources. We are talking about the transition to generators that use natural resources: sunlight, water and wind. Such technologies are less expensive, provide more jobs and do not harm nature and our health.

Today, more and more countries are switching to renewable energy. For example, in Germany already 74% of energy comes from renewable sources. And more and more countries are catching on to this trend. And scientists from Stanford University have compiled a map that shows how 139 countries around the world can meet their energy needs with renewable sources.

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In early January, the British bank HSBC published the report “The World in 2050”(World in 2050), which presented the results of the study national economies. The predicted picture of the future is curious enough: China predictably overtakes the United States, Egypt, the Philippines and Indonesia are among the twenty richest countries, and a number of sub-Saharan African countries are showing enviable economic growth. Belarus also got into the presented top 100 countries of the world.

The bank's experts analyzed the fundamental factors that determine the ability of countries to make an economic breakthrough: such as per capita income, demographics, level of development legislative framework, democracy, education, and predicted the possible growth of their GDP until 2050. The forecast is based on the optimistic assumption that policy makers will continue to work to resolve economic problems, avoid military conflicts, and create conditions for the development of global trade and capital inflows.

Opinion of economic optimists

According to the study, significant growth will be demonstrated by the Philippines, whose GDP will grow by more than 15 times. They will take 16th place in the ranking of the strongest economies in the world, rising up as much as 27 points.

Only one line behind it will be another "Asian tiger" - Indonesia. She will jump to 17th place from 21st.

The company "South American jaguars" will replenish Peru. It is predicted to grow almost 10 times in the economy, and 26th in the overall ranking, where it falls, having risen by 20 positions.

A happy future is predicted for revolutionary Egypt. Although its population should increase from its current 84 million to 130 million, by 2050 it could rank 20th in terms of GDP. At the same time, rushing up immediately by 15 points.

In addition to Egypt, a number of other states of the Black Continent predict serious success in the economic field, which allows us to admit the emergence of the phenomenon of "African lions". Algeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Nigeria can fall into the category of those. At the same time, their population will also grow rapidly. Nigeria will become the 4th country in the world in terms of population, second only to India, China and the United States. And Tanzania will show, perhaps, best results, both in economic indicators and in childbearing: an 18-fold increase in the economy, a rise of 34 lines up to 53 places with a tripling of the population.

The countries of Europe over the next 40 years will also continue to grow, but at a much less significant pace. They will retain their leading position, but they will have to face serious demographic problems, in particular, with a reduction in the working-age population. In some cases - up to 30%. Worst of all will be the Scandinavian countries, which will move at least 20 positions down. It is interesting that almost the Golden Age is predicted for Ukraine! Thanks to its educational system and the development of the legislative framework, it will rise to 40th place, jumping over 19 positions, while its population will be reduced to an estimated 36 million from today's 45.

According to HSBC experts, in 2050 Belarus will rank 76th among the largest economies in the world. Its GDP will grow by approximately 5 times and amount to $122 billion in 2000 prices against $25 billion in 2010 (also in 2000 prices). Relative to other countries, the position of Belarus will practically not change - it will only move down 2 positions. Actual per capita income will increase 7 times. According to this indicator, our country will take 57th place instead of 65th in 2010. At the same time, the population of the country will be reduced to 8 million. When calculating the model, the initial parameter "rule of law", meaning the attractiveness of the investment climate based on the level of law enforcement agencies, compliance with contracts and property rights, was set equal to 0.7 (the level of India, Kazakhstan, Italy, Hungary , Russia, Ukraine, Israel), and the "democratic index" turned out to be equal to ... zero (the level of China, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Syria).

An interesting fact: explaining the results of the study, its authors drew attention to the fact that "too much democracy is not necessarily good for economic growth." Under certain circumstances, she becomes his brake. In particular, it is noted in the study, with very high level democracy, the desire for redistribution of income becomes the dominant force, which begins to restrain entrepreneurial activity. In addition, democratic governments tend to meet the needs of the voters in their decision-making, which can interfere with long-term investments.

		Size of economy in			Income per capita in				Population
		2010 Bn Constant 2000USD	2050 Bn Constant 2000 USD	Change in rank	2010 Constant 2000 USD	Rank	2050** Constant 2000 USD	Rank	2010 Mn	2050 Mn
1	China*	3,511	25,334	2	2,579	63	17,759	54	1,362	1,426
2	United States	11,548	22,270	-1	36,354	6	55,134	8	318	404
3	India	960	8,165	5	790	88	5,060	86	1,214	1,614
4	Japan	5,008	6,429	-2	39,435	3	63,244	4	127	102
5	Germany	2,058	3,714	-1	25,083	18	52,683	10	82	71
6	United Kingdom	1,711	3,576	-1	27,646	11	49,412	14	62	72
7	Brazil	921	2,960	2	4,711	52	13,547	61	195	219
8	Mexico	688	2,810	5	6,217	42	21,793	47	111	129
9	France	1,496	2,750	-3	23,881	20	40,643	21	63	68
10	Canada	892	2,287	0	26,335	15	51,485	12	34	44
11	Italy	1,124	2,194	-4	18,703	23	38,445	23	60	57
12	Turkey	385	2,149	6	5,088	49	22,063	46	76	97
13	South Korea	798	2,056	-2	16,463	25	46,657	17	49	44
14	Spain	711	1,954	-2	15,699	26	38,111	24	45	51
15	Russia	412	1,878	2	2,934	58	16,174	56	140	116
16	Philippines	112	1,688	27	1,215	83	10,893	72	93	155
17	Indonesia	274	1,502	4	1,178	85	5,215	85	233	288
18	Australia	565	1,480	-4	26,244	16	51,523	11	22	29
19	Argentina	428	1,477	-2	10,517	33	29,001	38	41	51
20	Egypt	160	1,165	15	3,002	57	8,996	76	84	130
21	Malaysia	146	1,160	17	5,224	47	29,247	37	28	40
22	Saudi Arabia	258	1,128	1	9,833	34	25,845	43	26	44
23	Thailand	187	856	6	2,744	61	11,674	68	68	73
24	Netherlands	439	798	-9	26,376	14	45,839	18	17	17
25	Poland	250	786	-1	6,563	39	24,547	45	38	32
26	Peru	85	735	20	2,913	59	18,940	53	29	39
27	Iran	161	732	7	2,138	72	7,547	81	75	97
28	Colombia	142	725	12	3,052	56	11,530	69	46	63
29	Switzerland	294	711	-9	38,739	4	83,559	3	8	9
30	Pakistan	111	675	14	657	92	2,455	91	174	275
31	Bangladesh	78	673	17	482	95	3,461	89	149	194
32	Chile	103	592	12	6,083	43	29,513	36	17	20
33	Venezuela	158	558	2	5,438	46	13,268	63	29	42
34	Algeria	76	538	14	2,190	70	11,566	70	35	47
35	South Africa	187	529	-8	3,710	54	9,308	75	50	57
36	Austria	222	520	-11	26,455	13	61,124	6	8	9
37	Nigeria	78	515	9	506	94	1,323	98	158	390
38	Sweden	295	507	-20	31,778	8	47,941	15	9	11
39	Belgium	265	481	-18	24,758	19	41,842	20	11	11
40	Ukraine	45	462	19	987	86	12,818	65	45	36
41	Vietnam	59	451	11	674	91	4,335	88	88	104
42	Singapore	165	441	-11	34,110	7	84,405	2	5	5
43	Greece	161	424	-11	14,382	29	38,756	22	11	11
44	Israel	168	402	-14	21,806	22	37,731	25	7	11
45	Ireland	147	386	-9	27,965	10	61,363	5	5	6
46	Romania	56	377	9	2,596	62	20,357	51	21	19
47	United Arab Emirates	118	360	-6	25,607	17	29,651	35	8	12
48	Norway	199	352	-22	40,933	2	59,234	7	5	6
49	Czech Republic	76	342	0	7,225	38	32,153	32	10	11
50	Portugal	123	336	-10	11,588	31	35,863	28	11	9
51	Uzbekistan	25	314	22	893	87	8,859	77	27	35
52	Hungary	58	295	1	5,833	44	31,966	33	10	9
53	Tanzania	16	288	34	382	97	2,085	92	45	138
54	Kazakhstan	38	287	7	2,376	68	13,520	62	16	21
55	Kuwait	61	280	-4	23,072	21	54,183	9	3	5
56	Morocco	58	279	-2	1,781	75	7,110	82	32	39
57	Finland	145	270	-19	27,151	12	49,643	13	5	5
58	Denmark	172	265	-29	31,418	9	47,743	16	5	6
59	Libya	49	230	-2	7,692	37	26,182	42	6	9
60	New Zealand	64	214	-10	14,939	28	37,705	26	4	6
61	Dominican Republic	37	212	1	3,697	55	16,406	55	10	13
62	Ecuador	24	206	14	1,771	76	10,546	73	14	20
63	Ethiopia	17	196	23	201	100	1,352	97	83	145
64	Syria	28	181	2	1,397	78	5,470	84	20	33
65	Sri Lanka	25	175	7	1,233	81	7,558	80	21	23
66	Azerbaijan	20	168	14	2,303	69	14,482	59	9	12
67	Kenya	18	163	16	452	96	1,683	95	41	97
68	Tunisia	29	160	-3	2,805	60	12,686	66	10	13
69	Guatemala	26	152	1	1,858	73	4,826	87	14	32
70	lebanon	27	148	-2	6,342	41	31,659	34	4	5
71	Bolivia	12	145	25	1,192	84	8,652	78	10	17
72	Slovak Republic	44	145	-12	8,042	36	27,639	39	5	5
73	Oman	30	138	-10	10,779	32	36,832	27	3	4
74	Angola	24	134	1	1,313	80	3,170	90	19	42
75	Costa Rica	23	124	3	5,043	50	20,588	50	5	6
76	Belarus	25	122	-2	2,556	65	15,207	57	10	8
77	Cuba	49	121	-19	4,370	53	12,202	67	11	10
78	Iraq	23	117	-1	743	89	1,410	96	32	83
79	Qatar	54	112	-23	38,466	5	43,027	19	2	3
80	Jordan	15	112	9	2,497	67	11,317	71	6	10
81	Uganda	12	111	14	366	98	1,179	99	33	94
82	Panama	20	110	-1	5,732	45	21,423	48	4	5
83	Croatia	28	105	-16	6,396	40	27,091	41	4	4
84	El Salvador	16	104	4	2,566	64	13,729	60	6	8
85	Ghana	8	100	22	343	99	2,035	94	24	49
86	Paraguay	9	99	17	1,432	77	9,587	74	6	10
87	Turkmenistan	9	97	15	1,827	74	14,659	58	5	7
88	Uruguay	30	93	-24	8,942	35	25,482	44	3	4
89	Honduras	10	82	11	1,380	79	6,337	83	8	13
90	Cameroon	14	79	1	694	90	2,048	93	20	38
91	Serbia	9	75	13	1,229	82	8,565	79	10	9
92	Bulgaria	19	72	-10	2,542	66	13,154	64	7	5
93	Luxembourg	26	68	-24	52,388	1	96,592	1	1	1
94	Slovenia	26	66	-23	12,577	30	32,971	31	2	2
95	Bahrain	13	61	-3	16,968	24	33,910	29	1	2
96	Lithuania	17	59	-12	5,154	48	20,955	49	3	3
97	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	56	10	2,162	71	18,961	52	4	3
98	Latvia	11	52	0	4,973	51	27,143	40	2	2
99	Yemen	13	45	-8	565	93	731	100	24	62
100	Cyprus	12	45	-7	15,510	27	33,337	30	1	1

The point of view of climate pessimists

This is not the first time HSBC has presented such a report. Last year's edition of "The World in 2050" included a description of the fate of only 30 countries. Now their number has grown to 100. However, such studies are traditionally criticized by futurologists, who see them only as an extrapolation of existing technological and economic trends. At the same time, a number of other factors remain unaccounted for. While financial experts of all stripes at the beginning of 2011 read the report of experts from HSBC, predicting stability and prosperity for the world, the minds of Western readers were increasingly captured by a completely different scenario.

It was proposed by the geographer of the Los Angeles University of California, Professor Lawrence Smith, who published the book The New North: the World in 2050 at the end of 2010. For many years he studied the nature of the Arctic. He is best known in scientific circles for identifying the role of climate change in the disappearance of more than a thousand Arctic lakes during the last quarter of the 20th century. Discover magazine ranked Smith's discoveries in the top 100 most significant scientific discoveries 2005. Therefore, it is not surprising that in his book he pays the first attention not to the economy, but to the climate. He considers global warming to be the main catalyst for future changes.

Lawrence Smith believes that by 2050, due to global warming, the average annual temperature in the northern latitudes will increase by 7 degrees. Rising temperatures will be accompanied by violent storms and floods, which will flood many coastal areas of the oceans. But a far greater threat will be drought, leading to a reduction in fresh water and arable land. The white civilized world will stretch to the North, and from the south they will be propped up by "new barbarians" from Africa and South America. It's time for mass migrations. At the same time, the United States of America will get hard: Florida and all the largest cities on the west coast will be flooded, and a desert will appear in place of California.

Lawrence Smith predicts the most happy fate for the northern regions. the Arctic Ocean along the coasts of Eurasia and North America ice will be cleared, and the extraction of minerals lying on its bottom will become possible. First of all, we are talking about oil fields and natural gas. And as a result of the next "Great Migration of Nations" and a significant influx of capital, the Arctic countries will become the richest region on the planet. Perhaps Canada, the Scandinavian countries and Russia will be the biggest beneficiaries. Although the indigenous population of the latter will decrease, the lack of labor resources will be filled by immigrants from Central Asia. Regarding the prospects for Canada, the geographer is more optimistic.

"Canada is growing, and Russia is weakening. The difference is in the approach to immigration. Canada is able to attract highly skilled immigrants. Russia is heading for a real demographic disaster: by 2050 its population will decrease by 17%. Canada values education, labor qualifications and knowledge of the language. In xenophobia in Russia: a political question: if Russian politician says: "We must open the doors to immigrants," he is being crushed, "said a professor at the University of California in one of his interviews.

Despite the fact that Lawrence Smith's scenario implies a clear increase in tensions between states along the north-south line, the scientist is still confident that a large-scale war for the resources of the Arctic Ocean can be avoided. Moreover, he believes that the Arctic powers will unite in the "Union of the Nordic countries", build states of "social prosperity" and fence themselves off from the rest of the world. The professor also called this Union "Northern Rome", meaning by it a cultural meaning - as a place of storage of European civilization. All other countries will look at it and envy it, primarily because of its fresh water reserves, which can be sold to other regions.

Other predictions for 2050

Some interesting predictions about the technological aspect of our future were made by the famous American futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil. According to his forecasts, in the near future virtual reality, which includes full visual, auditory and tactile sensations, will allow people on different parts of the Earth to communicate with the absolute effect of presence. Drivers will no longer need to "turn the steering wheel": all roads will be equipped with automatic systems driving. It will be enough for a person to set the final destination - and the car itself will arrive there. From 2029, communication between a person and a computer will already occur through nerve endings. And then you no longer have to drum on the keys - all orders to the computer can be given at a distance, mentally. And by 2050, technology will have advanced so much that then a $1,000 computer will be equal in computing power to "one billion human brains."

Quoting Ray Kurzweil from his article "The Merger of Man and Machine: Are We Heading for The Matrix":

"When we get to 2050, the bulk of our thinking, which in my opinion is still synonymous human civilization, will be non-biological in nature. The non-biological part of our thinking will continue to be human because it will be derived from biological thinking. It will be designed by humans, or machines built by humans, or machines built from human brain engineering, or human mind uploads, or from one of many others. options close symbiosis between human thinking and machine thinking, which we can't even think of today."

Artificial intelligence researcher David Levay has predicted that by 2050, marriages between humans and robots will become commonplace.

In March 2006, Professor Jerry Gilmore expressed his belief that ground-based astronomy would be impossible by this year due to pollution from aircraft exhaust trails and climate change.

In 2002, the American physicist John Archibald Wheeler, who coined the terms "black hole" and "wormhole", predicted that in 2050 the most terrible war in the history of mankind would break out, after which this very humanity would understand that all existing social and political systems good for nothing and only lead to strife. As a result, the whole world order will be totally changed.

And the great Isaac Newton went even further. In addition to science, the creator of the theory of universal gravitation also devoted a lot of time to deciphering the messages to humanity hidden in the Bible. Shortly before his death, he wrote in his diary that he had found in the Holy Scriptures an indication of the date of the apocalypse. It is easy to guess that it was about the middle of the XXI century.

The world around us is changing not every 100 years, but every year. Our watches, glasses, cars and apartments have become "smart" for a long time, and you want to know what awaits us next?

In our selection of 11 scientific ideas about how this world of the future will still be.

Nature will be valued as an attraction

Everything natural is gradually becoming more expensive and appreciated more and more, and plots of land where nature and traditions have been preserved become attractions.

We will live long

Any item can be printed

Car parts, musical instruments, furniture and even a collection of fashionable clothes - what have not been printed on 3D printers since their invention. For example, there is a giant printer in Southern California that can print an entire house with electricity and running water.

Virtual reality will replace textbooks

Of course, nothing can replace a real journey with all its emotions and difficulties, but if you have a free minute during the day, then why not, for example, take a bike tour along the roads of Great Britain or visit a gallery in the Louvre?

We will treat garbage in a civilized way

Little by little, but we are moving towards this goal. The waste sorting system is not yet as developed as we would like, but it will certainly take root. Already today, household appliances and clothing stores offer to exchange old things for discounts. Gradually, more and more waste collection and sorting points appear, the processing of which is more environmentally friendly and economical. In general, there are chances!

Drones will be everywhere

Drones deliver pizza and packages faster and cheaper, and the artificial intelligence in Tesla cars drives better and safer than humans. Gradually, all control will pass into the hands of drones and will be carried out automatically. You click on a product in the online store - and after a few minutes, a "helicopter" is knocking on the window to hand you the coveted purchase. Agree, perfect!

People under 80 won't get cancer

British scientists came to this conclusion. It turned out that taking children's doses of aspirin at the age of 40 and older can prevent the development of cancer. In the UK, such prevention has already yielded results.

So, it turned out that taking the drug in small doses for 15 years reduces the risk of getting sick by 7-9%, and for 20 years it reduces premature death from any cause by 4%.

Of course, aspirin treatment may seem strange, but this discovery is likely to give impetus to the development of other drugs that will help to eradicate this disease once and for all.

We will switch to electric cars

Slowly but surely, we are moving away from these noisy, polluting machines in favor of electric motors. People are starting to realize that electric vehicles are not only greener and safer, but smarter overall.

Sports will become more accessible

Gradually infatuation in a healthy way life becomes not just a trend, but a lifestyle. In the future, drinking and smoking will not be fashionable at all, and fast food will seem outdated.

The world's population will grow exponentially

Not so long ago, the UN published a forecast for the growth of the population of our planet by 2050, according to which the population of the Earth will increase by 2.5 billion people - from the current 7.5 billion to 9.7 billion. This forecast was influenced by two things:

The development of medicine. The invention of new drugs and the improvement of medical equipment increase the duration and quality of life.
Healthy lifestyle. More and more people give up bad habits and unhealthy food and give preference to sports.

Energy will be cheap and renewable

Numerous films and books in the science fiction genre often give a false impression of what the world will be like in the future. Futurologists approach this issue from a scientific point of view and offer more plausible versions of the development of events.

Look thirty years ahead through the eyes of people for whom the future is a profession, and find out what the world will look like in 2050.

Virtual reality as an alternative to lessons and lectures

Thanks to virtual reality, education will become much more interesting, and students will not be bored in lectures or lessons. VR laboratories will allow you to observe the rarest physical phenomena, conduct chemical experiments or become a participant in historical events.

space elevators

In 2050, a romantic date in space will become a reality. Somewhere in the middle of the century, the first space elevators will appear, which will be cheaper than conventional methods of access to extraterrestrial space. "Space elevators" will become a key link in the development of space tourism.

Smart Homes

The houses of the future will be controlled by artificial intelligence. The house will not only respond to your voice commands. He will be able to determine your mood by the tone of your voice, and depending on this, adjust color scheme lighting, make the optimum temperature, pick up a movie or music.

Drones for delivery

Delivery drones in 2050 will bring any parcels. One click on a product from an online store - and in a few minutes a “helicopter” is knocking on the window to hand you the desired purchase.

Windows will be replaced by virtual reality screens

Virtual reality will make it possible to build ergonomic houses in the future cheaply and quickly, since the view from the window will no longer be a prerogative.

Exoskeletons for builders

The iron man suit will be used by builders to perform actions that ordinary person not under power. In addition, they are equipped with additional protection against damage.

flying cars

In 2014, the Slovak company AeroMobil unveiled a highly successful flying car prototype. So it is quite possible that by 2050 air routes will appear in large metropolitan areas.

Artificial ecosystems for tourism

Our planet is overpopulated and is at the stage of ecological degradation. In the near future, most natural ecosystems are likely to be destroyed. They will be replaced by nature reserves and museums, which will become tourist attractions.

Artificial insemination will completely replace natural

Already now, the selection of fertilized embryos makes it possible to protect future offspring from many genetic diseases. By 2050, new fertilization methods will appear that will make it possible to select 100% full-fledged embryos and have healthy offspring.

New level of medical technologies

Mobile gadgets will carry out a complete diagnosis of the entire body, and medical nanorobots will be able to penetrate the tissues of the body and destroy any disease instantly, including cancer.

13.01.2015 22:00

According to many research institutions, 2050 will be the most significant year for our planet, writes Newsweek. “A beautiful round date,” said Kostas Stamoulis, director of the Agricultural Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

According to many research institutions, 2050 will be the most significant year for our planet, writes Newsweek.“A beautiful round date,” said Kostas Stamoulis, director of the Agricultural Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Countless official forecasts are tied to this year, with a cascading effect: if any respected organization ties a specific global study to a particular year, others immediately follow its example.

What do we get as a result? A lot of predictions for 2050, indicating that by the middle of the century life on Earth will change beyond recognition.

Population boom

There are approximately 7 billion people on the planet today. By 2050, the UN predicts that the number will approach 9.6 billion. This is a jump of more than 30%. In other words, the figure is equivalent to adding one more India and China. The consequences, both individual and societal, are not very significant at first glance, but today it is possible to change the future, for example, by making contraceptives universally available.

Population aging

The total elderly population will only increase by mid-century as people are already living longer and birth rates are declining. By 2050, one in six people on Earth will be over the age of 65, and governments will have to find a way to provide for them somehow. As people live longer, they will be more likely to suffer from age-related diseases. The number of people suffering from dementia will triple, cancer - two. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one in three people in the US alone will have diabetes.

Fortunately, medicine is advancing, and by 2050, a number of vaccines will be available that are likely to cure such widespread diseases as malaria, which currently kills more than 2 million people a year, and HIV, which even after 20 years of research is barely vaccinated.

By the middle of the century, medicine will be able to produce medicines from the tobacco plant.

Computers will become a thousand times better and more productive, and much cheaper

According to Ulrich Eberl(Ulrich Eberl) in Life in 2050: How We Create the Future the future Today), today we are only halfway through the era of advances in computing. Over the past 25 years or so, information technology has gotten 1,000 times better, says Eberl. According to the author's forecasts, these scales will repeat again in the next 25 years.

“We will see another thousandfold increase in computing power, data transfer rate, at the same price that we see today,” says Eberl. “If you spend, say, $500 on a laptop today, by 2050 you will get the same power, performance and quality of computing in a small chip for 50 cents. This means that computers will be everywhere - due to their cheapness. Chips will be implanted in our jackets, robots will walk the streets, and cars will park themselves.”

In fact, computer technology will become so advanced and pervading all areas of human life that it is likely that we will be able to download an electronic version of our brain into some medium and continue to live after bodily death. This will force us to rethink the very concept of being in a philosophical sense.

We need to take recycling seriously

Eberl says that a large number of jumps will occur by 2035, well before the middle of the century. By 2050, the pace of technological innovation will slow down. Innovation efforts will focus on the reality of what will happen when our natural resources are reduced to a critical minimum. On a planet of 9.6 billion people, the struggle for resources will become a serious matter.

These new circumstances, according to Eberl, will force governments to focus on "holistic health" - the relationship between human health and environment. Quite possibly, we are talking and reducing consumption.

A growing middle class in countries such as China, Brazil, Russia, India will lead to swollen consumer populations and "very large shortages" of copper, oil and other end materials. “The resources of the Earth are not enough for 9.6 billion people. So it's time for new recycling methods. Reuse of molecules: for example, there is more gold in your smartphone now than in ore from a gold mine.”

The futurist also predicts that recycling technologies will be improved so that the quality of the manufactured product will not be lower even after processing, which is a serious problem for processing in today's conditions. Already today, chemists, such as Michael Braungart And William McDonough, they say that it is quite possible to correct the situation.

Solar energy could become the world's most important source of energy

Converting sunlight into energy is getting cheaper and cheaper. The average cost of solar panels per watt in 1972 was $75. Today's cost is $1, and even that hasn't stopped falling. According to a recent study by the International Energy Agency, by 2050 solar energy will be able to generate 27% of the world's energy, becoming the world's largest source of electricity.

If this happens, then the level of carbon dioxide emissions will decrease by 6 billion tons per year, which is about the same as all the current carbon emissions in the US energy sector.

Solving the problem of hunger is real, you just have to want

The more of us there are, the more food and water will be required for survival. The worst effects of climate change will continue to be significant in the future, and the rate of floods and droughts will begin to increase, exacerbating food and water shortages. An increase in population will simultaneously exacerbate climate change, creating a terrible feedback loop.

Last year, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said that in order to feed a population of 9 billion in 2050, the world will need to increase food production by an average of 60% compared to the current one. If this is not done, we risk serious food insecurity, leading to social upheaval, conflict and civil wars. In comparison, over the past 20 years, the production of wheat and rice has grown by less than 1%.

FAO predicts that by 2050 the need for food will result in an additional 70 million hectares being converted to agricultural land, especially in developing countries. But that's not necessarily good.

“In theory, we have a lot of land to grow food,” says Kostas Stamoulis, Director, FAO Agricultural Development Economics Division"But it's also worth taking a realistic look at the threats we face."

About 75% of the land that can be used for agricultural purposes belongs to 35 countries in Africa and Latin America characterized by vulnerable ecosystems. "We fear that many of these potential sites will be rendered unusable through deforestation and neglect."

Stamoulis believes global governments should intervene and provide desperate farmers with a viable alternative Agriculture in places such as wetlands or old-growth forests, and to encourage multinational corporations to adopt sustainable agricultural practices.

“Small farmers need to be given incentives and have access to places where they can grow food in an environmentally friendly way. We must also take action to prevent food from being grown in unsustainable ways.”

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Stamoulis remains hopeful that hunger can be avoided by 2050 simply by increasing productivity. Techniques such as "double" and "triple pruning" (growing more than one crop per crop in the same field) have already shown impressive results in parts of India and China. Scientists also know how to prevent potentially damaging fertilizer overuse as well as improve methods of increasing productivity. The problem is the lack of equipment and personnel with the appropriate education.

“We need to educate ordinary farmers about these technologies and take actions that can help us meet the challenges of the future. I am optimistic. The future is brighter than it seems."

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