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Fertility statistics
Fertility rates
The simplest conventional periodic characteristic of fertility, requiring only data on the age structure of the population, is the coefficient (or index) of childbirth, i.e. the ratio of the number of children aged 0-14 years to the number of women of reproductive (15-49 years old) age. Childhood rates can be used to characterize fertility in cases where data on the number of births are either unavailable or unreliable. The detail ratio is calculated using the following formula: C / W R = C h 0 - 4 W 15 - 49 (\ displaystyle C / WR = (\ frac (Ch_ (0-4)) (W_ (15-49))))
C / WR - coefficient of detail; Сh 0-4 - the number of children aged 0-4 years; W 15-49 - the number of women of reproductive age
This indicator can be used for an initial estimate of the birth rate, especially in countries with poorly adjusted vital statistics, but with sufficiently accurate census data. It is also useful for an initial comparison of fertility rates across countries: the child rate is high where fertility is high and low in countries with low fertility. The disadvantage of the child rate ratio is that it is extremely sensitive to fluctuations in infant and child mortality and to underestimation of the child population. Therefore, its use in countries with high infant and child mortality and unreliable statistics can lead to incorrect estimates and conclusions.
The simplest indicator is total fertility rate. The crude birth rate is calculated as the ratio of the absolute number of births to the average population over a period, usually a year. For clarity, this ratio is multiplied by 1000, that is, the total fertility rate is measured in ppm (‰): C B R = B P ∗ T ∗ 1000 (\ displaystyle CBR = (\ frac (B) (P * T)) * 1000)
CBR - crude birth rate B - absolute number of births per year P - average population T - length of the period
Special fertility rate is the ratio of the number of live births (usually in a calendar year) to the average (average annual) number of women aged 15 to 50, usually expressed in ppm (‰): F 15 - 49 = N W 15 - 49 ∗ 1000 (\ displaystyle F_ (15-49) = (\ frac (N) (W_ (15-49))) * 1000)
F 15-49 - special fertility rate N - number of children aged 0-4 years W 15-49 - average annual number of women aged 15-49 years
The special fertility rate has some advantages and, of course, disadvantages in comparison with the general rate. The advantages are that this coefficient, naturally, does not depend on the sex structure of the population and, to a lesser extent than the general coefficient, depends on the age structure. The share of women aged 15-49 in the total population fluctuates in different countries and territories from 20 to 30%. The disadvantage of the special coefficient is the same: the dependence of the value on the characteristics of the age structure within the female reproductive contingent (in the age range from 15 to 50 years), and not the entire population. Although this dependence is four times less than the general rate, its distorting effect is enough to make the special fertility rate also of little use in demographic analysis. Experts rarely use this indicator.
Age-specific fertility rates
The next step forward towards better fertility rates is to calculate age-specific fertility rates. The age coefficient is the ratio of the annual number of births to mothers of age "x" to the number of all women of this age:
F x = N x W x ∗ 1000 (\ displaystyle F_ (x) = (\ frac (N_ (x)) (W_ (x))) * 1000)
F x - age-specific fertility rate N x - number of women born at age "x" W x - number of women at age "x"
If we ignore multiple births (which make up a small percentage of the total number of births), then we can consider the fertility rate as the proportion of women who have given birth to a child in a given year in the total number of women of the corresponding age.
Age ratios are calculated for one-year and five-year age groups. The most detailed - one-year age coefficients provide the best opportunities for analyzing the state and dynamics of fertility. However, they are subject to the deformation of data on the age structure of the female reproductive contingent under the influence of age accumulation. Therefore, when very high accuracy is not required, researchers make do with five-year age coefficients, which, although they are slightly influenced by fluctuations in the age structure within five-year age groups, still provide quite good opportunities for analyzing fertility.
Marital and illegitimate fertility
Marital status is the most important factor in fertility rates. Consequently, the special and age-specific rates of marital and extramarital fertility give a better idea of the state and dynamics of fertility than the usual coefficients that are not differentiated by the marital status of women.
Special marriage fertility rate: m F x = m N m W 15 - 49 ∗ 1000 (\ displaystyle ^ (m) F_ (x) = (\ frac (^ (m) N) (^ (m) W_ (15-49))) * 1000 )
M F x - special marriage rate m N - number of births to married women m W 15-49 - total number of married women aged 15-49 years
Marital fertility rates are mainly calculated based on data from sample surveys.
Total fertility rate
The total fertility rate is calculated by summing up the age-specific fertility rates and multiplying them by the length of each age interval in whole years (for one-year rates, the multiplier is 1, for five-year rates, 5, etc.). The sum is ultimately divided by 1000, i.e. the indicator is expressed per woman on average:
F t o t a l = n ∗ ∑ 15 49 ∗ F x ∗ 0.001 (\ displaystyle F_ (total) = n * \ sum _ (15) ^ (49) * F_ (x) * 0 (,) 001)
F total is the total fertility rate n is the length of the age interval (with the same length of the interval, it can be taken out of the sign of the sum, i.e., first add the coefficients, and then multiply the sum of the coefficients by the length of the age interval once. If the intervals are different in length (rarely, but it happens), then it is necessary to multiply each coefficient separately by the corresponding length of the age interval) F x - age coefficients
The total fertility rate is one of the summary, final indicators. The total fertility rate shows how many children, on average, one woman gives birth to in her entire life from 15 to 50 years old, provided that throughout the reproductive period of a given generation's life, age-specific fertility rates in each age group remain unchanged at the level of the reference period.
Scale of values of the total fertility rate
(according to V.A. Borisov and B.Ts. Urlanis)
Economic statistics. Cheat sheet Yakovleva Angelina Vitalievna
Question 10. Indicators of the natural movement of the population. Fertility. Mortality
Natural population movement the process of population change is called only due to demographic factors (fertility and mortality). The natural movement of the population is characterized using absolute and relative indicators.
TO absolute indicators of the vital movement of the population relate:
1) the number of births P;
2) the number of deaths U;
3) absolute natural growth (R-U).
Relative fertility rates relate:
1) total fertility rate:
where P is the number of births;
- the average annual population.
This indicator characterizes the number of births on average per thousand people of the population. However, it gives an approximate idea of the birth rate, because it depends on the age, sex and marriage structure of the population;
2) fertility rate:
where is the average annual number of women aged 15–49 years.
This indicator characterizes the birth rate for every thousand women of reproductive age.
There is a relationship between the crude birth rate and the fertility rate:
Where d- the share of women of reproductive age in the total population.
3) marriage fertility rate:
where is the average annual number of married women of reproductive age;
4) the rate of out-of-wedlock births:
where is the average annual number of unmarried women of reproductive age.
Marital and extramarital fertility rates characterize the fertility rate among married and unmarried women of reproductive age.
Relative mortality rates include:
1) general mortality rate:
where Y is the number of deaths;
S is the average annual population.
This indicator characterizes the number of deaths on average for every thousand people in the population. However, it gives an approximate idea of the birth rate, because it depends on the age, sex and marriage structure of the population;
2) age-specific mortality rates:
Where Ugr- the number of deaths in the studied age group;
S gr- the average annual population of this age group.
These indicators characterize the mortality rate for sex, social, professional and other groups of the population.
3) infant mortality rate:
where U11 is the number of deaths under the age of one year from among those born in a given year;
Р1- the number of births in a given year;
U10 - the number of deaths up to a year in a given year from among those born in the previous year;
P0- the number of births in the previous year.
Natural population growth rate characterizes how much the population has increased or decreased due to demographic factors per thousand people:
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From the book Economic statistics. Crib the author Yakovleva Angelina VitalievnaQuestion 17. Classification of the population by status in employment The modern Russian classification of the population by status in employment is fully consistent with the International Classification of the Status of Employed. Only the economically active is classified by status in employment.
From the book Economic statistics. Crib the author Yakovleva Angelina VitalievnaQuestion 21. Indicators of the movement of labor. Labor force balances The movement or turnover of the labor force of the enterprise of the firm is the process of change in the number of personnel associated with the hiring or dismissal of workers.
From the book Economic statistics. Crib the author Yakovleva Angelina VitalievnaQuestion 41. Indicators of the state, movement and use of fixed assets Based on the data of the balances of fixed assets, both in book value and in value less depreciation, a number of indicators can be calculated that characterize the state and
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From the book Economic Analysis the author Natalia KlimovaQuestion 68 Direct and indirect methods of analyzing cash flows The organization's funds are the aggregate of money on hand, on bank settlement, foreign exchange, special accounts, in letters of credit and special accounts, checking
3. What is related to non-financial assets?
4. The composition of the financial assets of the country's national wealth.
5. Options for assessing fixed assets.
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7. Indicators of movement and condition of fixed assets.
Basic concepts:
Population statistics;
Average population;
General gain;
Natural growth;
Mechanical gain;
Overall growth rate;
Fertility rate;
Mortality rate;
Pokrovsky coefficient;
Infant mortality rate;
Mechanical population growth rate;
Working capacity ratio of the entire population;
Resident population;
Labor resources;
Able-bodied population.
Population statistics(demographic statistics) studies the patterns of quantitative changes in the population. In accordance with this main task, she studies: the number, composition and movement of the population; causes and factors of population change, its migration, fertility, mortality, life expectancy. She studies the composition of the population according to various criteria - sex, age, social status, education.
Objectives of population statistics:
1. Study of the number, location, demographic and socio-economic composition;
2. Analysis of reproduction and population dynamics;
3. Determination of the prospective size of the entire population and its individual contingents.
Population size is the baseline for calculating many indicators and is of great economic and social importance. Knowledge of it is necessary for the management, planning of the economic and social development of the country. The size of a country is usually judged by its population.
The population size is constantly changing due to birth and death rates, as well as due to the spatial movement of the population.
The population size is determined by the state at a certain point in time, i.e. as a result of censuses. The census is currently the main method for accurately determining the population size. However, population censuses are relatively rare and population data are required continuously. Therefore, in the periods between censuses, statistical bodies carry out the so-called current estimate of the population size, i.e. carry out the calculation based on the data of the last census and materials of current statistics on population movements. Its calculations are updated based on the results of the next census.
There are two categories of the population taken into account in the course of population censuses: permanent settlement and actual population. TO permanent population include persons who usually live in a given locality, and to cash- all persons who were at the critical moment of the census in a given territory, regardless of whether they permanently reside here or temporarily. In order to determine the size of the resident population, during the census, a record of temporarily absent and temporary residents is made. Permanent residents of a given settlement who temporarily left it are considered to be temporarily absent. Thus, those temporarily absent are part of the permanent population. Temporary residents make up part of the existing population.
The resident population can be determined:
Where is the available population;
Temporarily absent;
Temporary arrivals;
Of great importance in population statistics is the indicator of the average population size. Average number population can be calculated using different methods. The most accurate method is the person-years lived by the population. In this case, the total number of person-years lived by the given population for the studied period of time is determined and divided by the length of this period. Often the average annual population is defined as the half-sum of its size at the beginning and end of the year.
where is the population at the beginning of the year;
Population at the end of the year.
If there is data for several dates equidistant from one another, the calculation can be made according to the formula for the average chronological simple:
If the time distance between the dates is not the same, then the calculation is carried out according to the formula of the arithmetic (chronological) weighted average:
To calculate the change in population over time, indicators of dynamics are calculated.
The population is the main material component of society and the study of the laws of its development has great importance for the country's economy.
For each individual country, the total population can change due to two factors:
Natural movement (fertility and mortality);
Migration (mechanical) movement.
However, not only the total population is changing, but also the composition.
Currently, statistics use four complementary sources of population data:
Population census;
Current registration of the natural movement of the population and its migration;
Selective and special demographic surveys;
Registers and various records of the population.
The data from these sources is used for different purposes and cannot be substituted for each other. However, there is a close connection between them: each source complements or continues the other.
The main source of data on the population is the census, which is carried out once every 10 years. The population census during its implementation is carried out in settlements as of a certain point in time, which is called a critical moment.
When characterizing the dynamics of the population size, two circumstances must be taken into account:
1) it is possible to compare the population of only one category (either permanent or available);
2) if there were administrative-territorial changes, then the data on the population size should be comparable in relation to the territory.
Total absolute population growth ()
where is the natural growth;
Mechanical gain.
S arr - S select.
where is the number of births;
The number of deaths;
approx. - the number of arrivals;
Select - the number of dropped out;
Natural growth.
Then approx. - select.
Both general and natural, and migration gains can be positive or negative. Absolute gains are interval indicators, they are calculated for certain periods of time ( highest value have annual rates).
Population data are presented in a territorial context (within administrative-territorial units). Structural indicators are used to characterize the distribution of the population.
It:
1) the proportion of the population living in certain regions;
2) the indicator of the physical density of the population, which is calculated as the ratio of the population to the area occupied by it.
One of the main characteristics of the distribution of the population is its division into urban and rural.
According to the accepted classification, cities are divided into:
Small - with a population of up to 50 thousand;
Medium - 50-100 thousand;
Large - 100-250 thousand;
Large - 250-1 million;
The largest - more than 1 million
Studying fertility, mortality and natural population growth, statistics primarily determines their absolute size, i.e. establishes the number of births, the number of deaths and the difference between these numbers, called the absolute indicator of natural population growth. These indicators are calculated for a certain period of time - a year, a month, etc.
Relative indicators are also calculated for these values, called coefficients.
Fertility rate per 1000 people:
where is the number of births;
Average population.
Mortality rate for 1000 people:
where M is the number of deaths.
Natural growth rate:
or is equal to the difference between the birth rate and the death rate:
Natural population growth.
Population vitality rate(Pokrovsky):
shows how many newborns are there for one deceased.
Infant mortality rate (Rat's formula):
where - those who died before 1 year;
Born;
Born in the year preceding this one.
Specific fertility rate calculated as the ratio of the number of births () to the average number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years,)
Total fertility rate(n) is equal to the product of the special fertility rate by the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the entire population ()
Migration balance approx. - select.
Total absolute growth .
The most important tool for long-term forecasting of socio-economic social development is planning and analysis population growth... This indicator is most often used to calculate the size of its labor resources, including the volume of needs for them.
When analyzing the state demographic situation, two main indicators are used:
- Mechanical (migration) gain,
- Natural growth.
Shows the difference between the number of people who died and were born during the considered period of time.
For maximum data accuracy, statistics are used in the calculations, which make it possible to track the slightest changes. Special statistical bodies constantly monitor the birth and death rates, which are documented.
Population growth formula
Population growth is determined by summing two indicators:
- The rate of natural increase, which is the difference between fertility and mortality over a certain period;
- An indicator of migration growth, reflecting the difference between the number of people who arrived in a certain territory and the number of people who left during the period under review.
Population growth is the difference between the current level of the demographic situation and the level of an earlier period.
The unit of account can be a long-term (from 5 to 100 years) and short-term (from several days to 3 to 5 years) period of time.
Natural population growth formula
Natural increase is the difference between births and deaths of citizens. Moreover, if the birth rate is higher than the mortality rate, then we can talk about expanded reproduction of the population. If the mortality rate is higher than the birth rate, then there is a demographic decline and narrowed reproduction of the population.
There is an absolute and relative formula for natural population growth.
Natural population growth formula in absolute terms can be determined by subtracting the end and beginning of the period from the volume of reproduction.
This formula looks like this:
EP = P - C
Here EP is a natural increase,
P is the number of people born,
C is the number of people who died.
The relative assessment of natural growth is carried out by calculating the coefficients. In this case, the absolute value is the total number of inhabitants. The formula of natural growth of the population in relative terms is calculated as the difference between births and deaths of citizens for a certain period (that is, the absolute value of natural growth). This difference is then divided by the total population.
Potn. = Pubs. / CHN
Here Potn. - the relative indicator of natural population growth,
Pubs. - the absolute indicator of population growth, calculated as the difference between people who were born and died),
CHN - population size.
Examples of problem solving
EXAMPLE 1
| The task | At the beginning of the year, there were 50,000 thousand people in the state. At the same time, the birth rate for the year was 1,000 thousand people, and the death rate was 800 thousand people. Determine the absolute and relative rate of population growth. |
| Decision | The formula of natural population growth (in absolute value) will be the difference between the born and the deceased citizens for the year: Pubs. = P - C Pubs. = 1,000 - 800 = 200 thousand people The coefficient of relative population growth is calculated using the following formula: Potn. = Pubs. / CHN Potn. = 200 / 50,000 = 0.004 (i.e. 0.4%) Output. We see that the natural increase was 200 thousand people, or 0.4% of the total population. |
| Answer | Pubs. = 200 thousand people, P rel. = 0.4% |
