Solar eclipse: unique but predictable. Eclipse of the Blood Moon. Do's and Don'ts - Astrologers' Recommendations How to Predict Eclipses

Critical study of the chronology of the ancient world. Antiquity. Volume 1 Postnikov Mikhail Mikhailovich

Eclipse Predictions

Eclipse Predictions

Predicting solar eclipses is very difficult due to the complexity of the Moon's motion, which is influenced by the attraction of other planets (say, Jupiter) besides the Sun and Earth. One can try to predict eclipses by the saros, during which there are about 43 solar eclipses (15 partial, 14 annular, 2 so-called annular-total and 12 total). However, these eclipses, separated by a saros, occur, generally speaking, in different regions of the Earth, and therefore the prediction for a given place is justified on average in one case out of four hundred (i.e., the probability of a correct prediction is 1/400) (see p. 415).

Theoretically, the best results should be given by the so-called triple saros, duration of 54 years. However, the probability of predictions with its help is only 1/99, and therefore it is also practically inapplicable. In addition, the triple saros can be empirically detected only from observations of solar eclipses. In view of its relative duration and the low frequency of solar eclipses separated by the triple saros, this discovery requires such long and systematic observations (not to mention the difficulties of their mathematical processing necessary to identify a previously unknown periodicity) that it is not possible to seriously talk about its possible use in antiquity. account for. A more or less reliable prediction of solar eclipses is possible only on the basis of a sufficiently advanced theory of the motion of the Moon, taking into account at least its basic inequalities. Therefore, it is not surprising that even a hundred years after Copernicus, solar eclipses were still virtually unpredictable. Therefore, we must be very skeptical about all reports of predictions of solar eclipses before modern times. Almost certainly, such reports are either pure fantasy, wishful thinking, or later apocrypha.

This consideration is very important, and we draw the reader's special attention to it.

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On March 20, a partial solar eclipse was observed in Tomsk. At 5:01 pm, the Moon covered the Sun by 31%. However, the luminosity of the remaining 69% is enough to make no noticeable changes in our daylight without special optics. But through a dark filter, the disk of the Moon against the background of the Sun was perfectly visible.

Mass observation of the eclipse was organized by the Tomsk Planetarium on the embankment of Tom, as usual, when something worthy of attention happens in the sky. There were several telescopes, including private ones, and a decent queue lined up for each of them.

Now eclipses are calculated by complex computer programs, so the error in them tends to zero. But one can quite successfully predict them using only empirical data and mathematics.

Evgeny Parfenov, astronomer-observer of the Tomsk Planetarium

To make forecasts, I use a ready-made data array (DE200 / LE200 fund, or another similar one). Knowing the coordinates of the Sun and Moon in the sky at a given moment, as well as the angular dimensions and distance between objects, it is possible to calculate the time of their approach to the nearest second.

Why are total eclipses so rare?

Solar eclipses are not uncommon phenomena. They occur much more frequently than lunar ones, between two and five times a year. But it is very rare to observe total eclipses from one point, on average once every 300–400 years. For example, in Tomsk, the last total eclipse was observed in 1936, and the next one will not be until 2372. Partial eclipses - when the Moon covers only part of the Sun's disk - everyone can see more than once in their lives. They are repeated every 2-3 years. Unlike total eclipses, during which birds fall silent and bright stars appear in the daytime sky, partial eclipses, if the phase is not too large, cannot be noticed without notification and cannot be seen without special optics. Understand the causes of offensive injustice?

The fact is that the Moon is much smaller than the Earth and is located very far away. The diameter of its shadow does not exceed 270 km, which is a little more than the distance from Tomsk to Novosibirsk. A total eclipse is observed only in the zone of passage of this tiny spot. There is a penumbra around, the diameter of which at the maximum size is close to 6750 km. And this is already a huge distance, almost like from Pskov to Vladivostok. Another thing is that the farther the observer is from the main phase band, the less the Sun will be hidden for him. Closer to the edges of the penumbra, the eclipse is noticeable a little more than nothing. Sometimes the lunar shadow completely bypasses the Earth, and the penumbra partially captures it, then only partial eclipses occur.

Eclipses each time fall on different regions of the Earth, since the Moon's orbit is slightly inclined relative to the ecliptic (Earth's orbit around the Sun). In addition, the lunar orbit is elliptical, our satellite either comes closer to us, or moves a little further. Therefore, the diameter of the shadow is different for different eclipses. Sometimes the shadow of the Moon does not reach the earth's surface for about 4700 km, and then an annular eclipse is observed: a large dark spot of the Moon against the background of a shining solar disk:

How did people learn to predict eclipses?

And yet, despite the many changing conditions, celestial mechanics is an absolutely exact science. The dates and coordinates of all solar eclipses have long been calculated - from ancient times to the distant future.

Since eclipses, for an ancient man, mystical and frightening phenomena, were often described in chronicles and other documents, this helps modern historians quite accurately determine the time of the events described. For example, this is how the date of the Battle of Salamis (October 2, 480 BC) was set, when the Greeks utterly defeated twice the size of the Persian fleet and expelled the army of Xerxes from their land. Or the start date of the unsuccessful campaign of Igor Svyatoslavlich, the protagonist of "The Tale of Igor's Campaign" (April 23, 1185. 7 days before the eclipse on May 1 of the same year).

Developed civilizations of antiquity: the Babylonians, Egyptians, ancient Greeks - learned to predict eclipses quite a long time ago. At first, they noticed that solar eclipses occur only on the new moon, and during them the Moon is never visible (although planets and bright stars can be seen perfectly). And on the night following the day of the solar eclipse, the nascent Moon was always very close to the Sun. Calculations of the paths of the Moon and the Sun showed that during the eclipse they coincided. The conclusion suggested itself: the Sun is obscured from the Earth by the dark body of the Moon.

As a result of long-term observations, it turned out that eclipses occur after a certain period of time, when the mutual position of the Sun and the Moon is repeated. The ancient Greeks called this gap the saros. It is 223 revolutions of the moon, that is, 18 years, 11 days and 8 hours. After the expiration of the saros, the eclipse will repeat, but the lunar shadow will pass over the Earth 120 ° to the west than it was 18 years ago. 120*3=360, full circle. Accordingly, after a triple, or large, saros, the eclipse is repeated at the same geographical longitude. The big saros is 19,756 days, or just over 54 years. However, it is impossible to make an accurate forecast of the eclipse from the saros, but only indicate the approximate date and area of ​​​​its visibility.

The fact is that after the expiration of the saros, the Moon does not reach its previous position by 0.47 °. Therefore, the next total solar eclipse will occur to the west and will have a slightly shorter duration.

Despite the existence of natural cycles, the place and time of eclipses never repeat exactly. If only because the Moon is slowly moving away from the Earth, and in about 600 million years its apparent size will not be enough to cover the solar disk. Then solar eclipses in their present form will no longer be observed.

Solar eclipses in the 21st century:

Text: Katerina Kaigorodova


The ancient Babylonians, who lived almost 4,000 years ago, could predict the solar eclipse that took place on August 21, 2017.

The Babylonians are considered the founders of modern astronomy. They were able to track and predict the movement of the sun and moon, as well as the planets of the solar system known to them, Venus and Mercury.

How could people who lived several thousand years ago and did not even know iron yet predict a modern astronomical event? In the absence of computer technology, they acted the old fashioned way: they kept records from generation to generation, noting patterns, plus, of course, mathematics. Cuneiform tablets found in Babylon and Uruk testify that the local scientists were able to predict the positions of celestial bodies using geometric calculations, which, as previously believed, were invented by Europeans only in the 14th century.

King of Babylon Hammurabi (left) on the top of the stele of the Code forHorses of Hammurabi, 1750s BC.

The ancient Babylonians meticulously recorded the positions of the stars for 300 years, recording all celestial phenomena, including the movements of the planets that they could see with the naked eye, as well as lunar and solar eclipses. They recorded their observations on clay tablets, some of which were found by archaeologists in the city of Ugarit.

Archaeologists suggest that astronomical observations began much earlier, possibly as early as the era of the Sumerian civilization, the oldest known Mesopotamian civilization of the early Bronze Age, since some of the stars mentioned in the Babylonian lists bear Sumerian names. Other researchers believe that the first astrologers were the Elamites, a mysterious ancient people who destroyed the capital of the Sumerians ca. 1750 BC

Be that as it may, the Babylonians realized that cosmic phenomena were cyclical in nature and began to predict lunar and solar eclipses using the so-called. Saros or draconian period - an interval of time, consisting of 223 synodic months (on average, approximately 6585.3213 days or 18.03 tropical years), after which the eclipses of the Moon and the Sun approximately repeat in the same order. With it, they would be able to predict the current eclipse quite accurately.

Despite the fact that the ancients knew about the periodicity of eclipses and, accordingly, were able to predict them, they still considered them a manifestation of the wrath of their quick-tempered gods. (Why exactly these manifestations of anger are predictable has never been explained by anyone). Therefore, despite the cyclicality, the ancients believed that eclipses, especially lunar eclipses, portend trouble - for example, the imminent death of the king. However, the predictability of eclipses allowed the Mesopotamian kings to avoid the evil fate with the help of a simple elegant solution: on the eve of the eclipse, the monarch temporarily renounced power in favor of some poor fellow, who was then killed.

Ezekiel's vision, 1670 engraving

Solar eclipse May 28, 585 BC caused the end of the war between the Lydians and the Medes. Both sides took it as a sign that the gods did not favor them - despite the fact that the eclipse was predicted ahead of time by the Greek sage Thales of Miletus:

This war lasted for five years, with the Medes gaining the upper hand, then the Lydians winning, and once - even in some kind of night battle. Thus this protracted war continued with varying success, and in the sixth year, during one battle, day suddenly turned into night. This solar eclipse was predicted to the Ionians by Thales of Miletus and even accurately determined in advance the year in which it occurred. When the Lydians and the Medes saw that the day had turned into night, they stopped the battle and hastily made peace.

Herodotus, History, 1:74

It is believed that Thales was the first native of the "west" who learned to predict eclipses. However, neither he nor the Babylonians knew what caused them.

The oldest eclipse mentioned in Babylonian accounts is dated May 3, 1375 BC, although older records undoubtedly existed. In total, 61 eclipses are mentioned in the list, including a solar eclipse on July 31, 1063 BC.

One cuneiform tablet even mentions Halley's Comet, which flew by the earth in 164 BC. Gradually, Babylonian knowledge became the property of neighboring peoples.

Assyrian stargazers from Nineveh recorded an eclipse on June 15, 763 BC, which went down in history as the Assyrian eclipse (Pur-Sagal). An unknown scribe wrote: "Rebellion in Ashura, in the month of Siman (Sivan) - a solar eclipse." It is very tempting to assume that people, frightened by the eclipse, rebelled against the then Assyrian king Ashurdan III. However, the cause of the rebellion was most likely poverty and an epidemic.

Some scholars suggest that the Babylonian astrologers were able to predict (and predicted!) Even those eclipses that were not visible in Babylon.

Among those who adopted the astronomical knowledge of the Babylonians were the ancient Egyptians, Greeks, Jews, and later Muslim astronomers. However, some ancient Greeks may not have needed Babylonian records to predict eclipses. At the beginning of the 20th century, Greek divers raised an ancient bronze mechanism from the bottom of the sea, made more than 2000 years ago.

The device, called the Antikythera Mechanism, contained no less than 30 (some believe as many as 50) bronze gears in a rectangular wooden case, on the bronze front and back of which were placed dials with arrows. The mechanism was used to calculate the movement of celestial bodies and made it possible to find out the date of 42 astronomical events, including, of course, solar and lunar eclipses.

Antikythera mechanism

However, despite the fact that the movement of the sun was not a secret for them, the ancient people still believed that eclipses were connected with the will of the gods, and that they were an important sign. Some, however, still believe in it.

Nowadays, even a primary school student is unlikely to be frightened by stories about a terrible wolf that lives in the night and at times devours the moon in a black sky, foreshadowing misfortunes.

However, until relatively recently, by astronomical standards, the eclipse of the moon terrified mankind. Many cave paintings depict this astronomical phenomenon, which was mainly interpreted as a sign of the wrath of the gods and a harbinger of misfortune. And the blood-red appearance of the moon clearly hinted at the imminent bloodshed. In ancient China, for example, such an eclipse was considered "abnormal" or even "terrible." In ancient Chinese texts, you can find hieroglyphs that mean "unnatural connection between the Moon and the Sun", "devour", "misfortune". Court astronomers believed that the moon was "devoured by a dragon." In order to help the dragon spit out the luminary as soon as possible, the inhabitants took the mirrors out into the street, since the latter were associated with celestial bodies, because of their ability to reflect light. It is noteworthy that the mathematicians of Ancient China already during the Han Dynasty (206 BC - 220 AD) could predict both lunar and solar eclipses for many decades to come, but this knowledge was kept secret . The Indian Mahabharata says that a lunar eclipse happens when the gods of the Indian pantheon gather to brew soma, the elixir of immortality. The Vikings firmly believed that two voracious wolves took turns devouring the luminaries to satisfy their unbridled hunger. In contrast to other peoples, the Australian Aborigines, on the contrary, associated a lunar eclipse with love.

Early astronomers and eclipse predictions

How did the attitude of people to such an interesting astronomical event change? As mentioned above, in ancient China, despite the deep mystical attitude to eclipses, astrologers inquisitively studied this natural phenomenon. Thanks to the high development of mathematics and algebra in China, the ancient scientists managed to unravel the astronomical mystery. It turned out that using seemingly simple mathematical calculations, it is possible to predict the onset of a lunar eclipse with a high degree of probability. There is evidence that even earlier, during the reign of the great Pharaohs of Ancient Egypt, people already knew how to predict many astronomical phenomena. But what is most striking is that almost before the construction of the Egyptian pyramids, there was an entire observatory capable of predicting not only lunar eclipses, but also plotting most of the most important astronomical events associated with our planet, its satellite and the Sun. The famous Stonehenge made it possible to make a large number of predictions and observations of astronomical phenomena, and it quite deservedly bears the title of the oldest observatory of mankind.

How it all works

But what is the genius of the ancient astronomers and mathematicians? What is so complex that can be hidden in such a seemingly simple phenomenon as the eclipse of the Moon by the Earth? Let's try to understand this issue. After the discovery of the heliocentric system of the world by Nicolaus Copernicus, it became clear that the Moon, revolving around the Earth in 29.5 days, crosses the ecliptic plane twice at the so-called lunar nodes. The node, crossing which the Moon goes up to the North Pole of the Earth, is called the North or Ascending, the opposite is called the Lower or Descending. But due to the discrepancy between the planes of the Lunar and Earth orbits, not every full moon is accompanied by an eclipse.

Total, incomplete and partial eclipses

Also, not every lunar eclipse is total. And if the full moon falls on the passage of such a node by the Moon, then we will be able to observe the eclipse. But only half of the globe can observe this phenomenon, since it will only be visible where the Moon is above the horizon. Due to the precession of the lunar orbit, the nodes move along the ecliptic. The nodes make a complete cycle along the ecliptic in 18.61 years, or in the so-called Draconian period. That is, lunar eclipses occur exactly after this period of time. Knowing where and when the eclipse took place, it is possible to predict the next similar event with very high accuracy. Essentially, an eclipse occurs when the Moon enters the cone of shadow cast by the Earth. At the distance of the orbit of our satellite, or 384,000 kilometers, the diameter of the shadow spot is approximately equal to 2.6 disks of the Moon. As a result, the Moon may well be completely darkened, and the maximum time of the total eclipse phase can be no more than 108 minutes. Such eclipses are called central eclipses because the moon passes through the center of the shadow cast by the earth.

Why is the moon "bloody"?

Remarkable is the fact that even when the Moon passes through the center of the shadow, it does not remain completely dark. The fact is that under the influence of the Earth's atmosphere, sunlight is refracted, which leads to partial illumination of the Moon's surface even at the peak of the eclipse. And due to the fact that our atmosphere is most permeable to the orange-red spectrum of sunlight, it is this light that reaches the surface of the Moon, turning it blood red. A similar effect can be seen in the sky after sunset or before dawn. However, if the Moon does not pass through the center of the Earth's shadow spot, then a so-called partial or penumbral lunar eclipse may occur, as a result of which part of the satellite will remain illuminated.

The most rare and unusual lunar eclipses

In addition to the above facts, there is another no less amazing. Paradoxically, a lunar eclipse can actually be observed when both the Moon and the Sun are above the horizon and are clearly not at exactly opposite points. In other words, a lunar eclipse can be observed when the rising or setting Moon is on your left, and the Sun is on your right, also in one of two phases. This phenomenon may arise due to the fact that the Earth's atmosphere bends the movement of light. This is one of the strangest natural phenomena that can occur, and which at first glance seems impossible, considering that an eclipse occurs when three bodies line up (syzygy). This anomaly is due to the refraction of the atmosphere. The sun has actually already set, and the moon has not yet risen, but the lensing of light by the Earth's atmosphere distorts the surrounding astronomical reality. As a result of the "double" displacement of celestial bodies, their imaginary approach occurs by more than 1 degree of a great circle.

A similar kind of incredible eclipse was observed by Pliny the Elder on February 22, 72 AD. But the exotic views of Lunar eclipses do not end there. Sometimes the Moon passes through the shadow of the Earth, being in the so-called supermoon, that is, the point of closest approach to the Earth. Since the orbit of the Moon has an eccentricity, then at certain periods of time our satellite either approaches the Earth or moves away. Under the confluence of all circumstances, along with the coincidence of the full moon and the passage of the Moon through the node of the orbit, there is also the maximum approach of the Moon to the Earth. The last total lunar eclipse with a supermoon occurred on the morning of September 28, 2015. In addition, a lunar eclipse may coincide with the day of the summer or winter solstice. On December 21, 2010, for the first time in 372 years, a lunar eclipse coincided with the winter solstice. The next time this will happen is December 21, 2094.

When is the next lunar eclipse?

There will be two lunar eclipses next year in 2016: March 9 at 5:57 am and September 1 at 13:06 Moscow time. Not only will the daylight interfere with enjoying the eclipse in both cases, but the eclipses themselves will only be penumbral.

Lunar eclipse of October 8, 2014 compressed to 1 minute

On January 21, we will observe the “Bloody Moon”, when the Earth’s satellite will turn red due to the fact that it will be completely covered by the Earth and only part of the light will fall on its surface. In ancient times, it was considered a harbinger of famine and devastation, but in fact, the “blood moon” is not such a bad sign.

Astrologers site told about the eclipse, what you can do and what not.

What is a lunar eclipse

It occurs when the Moon in motion along its trajectory falls into the shadow of the Earth. At this moment, the Moon, the Earth and the Sun are, as it were, on the same line, and our planet blocks the Moon from the Sun. If the shadow covers completely, this is a total eclipse, partially - partial. The maximum number of lunar eclipses is four per year, as will be, for example, in 2020 and 2038, the minimum is two.

What do eclipses mean in astrology

January 21 at 5:16 (GMT) there will be a Lunar eclipse. This is an important astro-event, and not because any eclipses are serious, but because the January eclipses, as it were, open and close doors, important milestones in the year. There was a solar eclipse on January 6, which gave impetus to a new start, and now the lunar eclipse will sum up the results. It will be full, coincide with the first Supermoon of the year, and besides, it will be spectacular - due to the fact that the Moon is completely covered by the Earth, it will become “bloody”, bright red.

Eclipses affect a person in different ways. They come in pairs, two weeks apart. Solar ones provoke a crisis in consciousness, change internal attitudes and lead events that are completely dependent on external circumstances. But the Lunar ones are more connected with what a person thinks and feels. Solar ones open a new stage, focus on matters that require urgent attention, and bring something new to life; Lunar - complete some life stage, provoke a crisis, when you need to change something or give up something, this is a boiling point, a time of conflicts, revolutions, natural disasters.

How eclipses affect human life

Everything that happens on eclipse days is very important, even if it doesn't seem so at first. You should be attentive to situations, acquaintances and meetings, write down thoughts and observations that come to mind. Everything that enters our lives during the "eclipse corridor" will be a part of his life for a very long time. That is why it is so important at this time to set goals, plan, form your intentions in order to proceed with them as soon as the “corridor” is behind you. Even at this time, it is good to give up bad habits, burdensome relationships, obligations, people.

But plans are plans, and it’s not worth acting on the very days of eclipses and plus or minus a week. The person seems to be in the dark, he perceives too emotionally that “it’s not worth a damned egg”, but does not notice the important clues of Fate. Darkness, chaos, confusion, incomplete information, emotions - all this promises both a Solar and a Lunar eclipse. These days can unsettle anyone, so you can’t start anything new and destroy what you didn’t really plan to destroy before the eclipse - mistakes will come back to haunt you soon and painfully.

But on the days of eclipses and plus or minus a week, you can look at yourself and your life from the outside, from an unusual angle. It's like looking at yourself in a photo or video that someone took without your knowledge: and you don't talk like that, and you don't look like you used to in the mirror, and what kind of stupid antics are these... Eclipses are a time of breaking the pattern, when you need to catch new information, but do not rush to conclusions and deeds.

“The total lunar eclipse coincides with the first Supermoon of the year and will be in the sign of Leo. During this period, it is best to do introspection, summing up, making plans. In no case should you make important decisions, conclude deals, make large purchases. People usually begin to feel this phenomenon on themselves 3-4 days before and after the event. Suddenly, for no apparent reason, you can feel strong irritation, apathy, sometimes aggression, or, conversely, deep longing.

The motto of this period is “World Peace!”. You can’t quarrel, sort things out, even think badly about someone. You need to think about loved ones, about those with whom there are very difficult relationships, about enemies - rethink your own and their behavior and forgive everyone, let go of grievances, mentally ask for forgiveness. For those who during this period feel bright flashes of aggression or mood swings, it is better to be alone, relax or do what you love.

“It is very important that the eclipse will occur on the intense interaction of Venus and Neptune, as well as Mars and Saturn. On this day and in the 2-3 days preceding it, you need to beware of sorting out relationships with loved ones and with your soulmate. Do not lie, do not try to hide something, especially in love. At this time, unions are collapsing in which there are no feelings and mutual affection left - if so, then it is better to let the person go, since someone who suits you better will come in his place.

In a career, news is also possible, but not necessarily with a minus sign. There may be an echo of the events that were relevant in the second half of the summer of 2018. There may be a recognition of your merits, the signing of important documents with a view to the future. But it’s better not to start looking for work at this time, not to quit and not to conflict with colleagues, even if the truth is on your side. But if you yourself are offered to think about changing jobs, or an interesting option falls into your field of vision, it’s better not to hesitate with the decision.”

“The combination of the Supermoon and the Lunar Eclipse on January 21 means a double, heightened effect on your psyche. You will be emotional, confused and irritable, and you will face situations where all your past experience is useless. The situations themselves will be small, insignificant, but your emotional reaction to them will be very strong! You will feel that you need to change something in yourself, and that only internal changes separate you from a new, better life.

Do not be afraid to change, do not act as you are used to, but as the situation requires. It may be unusual for you to behave in a new way, but the reward will not be long in coming. Within a week you will see the benefits of the new behavior, in July 2019 you will be able to say with confidence that your life and you yourself have changed for the better, and you will see the global effect of internal work on yourself in 19 years!”

“This eclipse will occur on the Leo-Aquarius axis in tense aspect with Uranus. And there will be a lunar perigee, when the moon comes very close to the earth. By itself, the lunar perigee makes people very irritable, impatient with each other. In the lunar perigee, the number of accidents on the roads increases. The full moon can give uncontrollable outbursts of emotions, destructive actions and rash words that can ruin relationships very much. A tendency to rash acts, which you can later regret very much, and there will be no chance to correct them.

Events during this period can gain unexpected momentum, the most unpredictable consequences are possible. Pluto, participating in this configuration, will require drastic changes, the end of something. Therefore, during this period, an unexpected end to something is possible, whether it be a relationship, friendship or business partnership.

This period is characterized by increased injury risk, accidents, air crashes. Therefore, it is advisable to maintain maximum caution on the roads, when driving a car, it is advisable not to go on trips and travels.

“Any full moon, and on January 21 there will be a full moon, is most favorable for appealing to higher authorities or people in authority. In all other matters, this time is rather unfavorable for undertakings. It, at best, helps to realize something, sort out your feelings, sort out relationships and bring to light some problems both in relationships and in other areas of life. If there is no complete clarity and you cannot figure out what you feel and what you want, this is a good moment to understand yourself.