MOSCOW, October 20 – RIA Novosti. It is impossible to say that Russia sent all the ships of the Northern Fleet and part of the Baltic Fleet to strengthen the Russian group in Syria; we are only talking about a group of several ships needed to prevent potential air threats from NATO in the region, says the President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov.

A North Atlantic Alliance spokesman told Western media on Wednesday that Russia has sent all the ships of its Northern Fleet and part of its Baltic Fleet to strengthen its campaign in Syria. At the same time, the Northern Fleet itself previously announced the dispatch of a group of ships to the Mediterranean and gave their specific names.

“Previously, it was officially said that the heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov will move to the Mediterranean Sea, and, naturally, it will not go there alone, but as part of a full-fledged strike group. This group will consist of 5-6 ships,” Sivkov told RIA News.

According to him, NATO is wrong when they say that the 15 aircraft on board the Kuznetsov will radically change the balance of power in the region: “These aircraft are predominantly fighters, about four MiG-29s, and all the rest are Su-33s, which are not suitable for firing at ground targets."

“Thus, with the arrival of the Northern Fleet ships in the Mediterranean, we cannot expect a significant strengthening of our group in Syria - these are, rather, measures to prevent potential air threats from NATO,” Sivkov concluded.

The Northern Fleet (SF) is the operational-strategic formation of the Russian Navy. The basis of the Northern Fleet consists of nuclear missile and torpedo submarines, missile-carrying and anti-submarine aircraft, missile, aircraft-carrying and anti-submarine ships.

Earlier, the press service of the Northern Fleet reported that in accordance with the Navy’s combat training plan, on October 15, the Northern Fleet’s carrier group began its voyage to the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea areas. The group includes the heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser "Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Kuznetsov", the heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser "Peter the Great", large anti-submarine ships "Severomorsk" and "Vice Admiral Kulakov" and support vessels.

The standard wing of the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov consists of carrier-based Su-33 and Su-25 aircraft, as well as Ka-27/Ka29 helicopters. Currently, a new air group consisting of MiG-29K fighters and Ka-52K helicopters is being tested on the ship.

The development of the situation is in the special project of RIA Novosti " " >>

Russia is building up its naval group, which is heading to the shores of Syria. The aircraft carrier group of the Northern Fleet, led by the cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov, was joined by three submarines, presumably armed with cruise missiles. This was reported by The Sunday Times on Sunday, October 30, citing sources in the British Navy.

According to the publication, we are talking about two nuclear submarines of Project 971 “Shchuka-B” and one diesel-electric submarine of Project 877 “Halibut”. Last week, the British fleet recorded their passage into the Mediterranean. The newspaper's interlocutors believe that the submarines could be equipped with Caliber cruise missiles to strike targets in Syria.

Previously NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the alliance was concerned about the carrier group's campaign in the eastern Mediterranean. In his opinion, the ships can be used to shell Aleppo. The Russian Foreign Ministry countered: there is no reason for concern, since Russian ships have always been present in the Mediterranean Sea.

And yet NATO is gaining momentum. The Alliance is trying, as far as possible, to prevent the Mediterranean campaign.

The route and tasks of the ship group, according to press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov, are in “closed envelopes marked ‘Top Secret’.” However, as the Spanish Foreign Ministry previously reported, on October 28 the ships were supposed to arrive at the Spanish port of Ceuta (an enclave in North Africa). The corresponding permit, as noted in Madrid, was issued back in September. However, when this news hit the press, Spain was hit with a barrage of criticism from its NATO allies.

Stoltenberg said that in other circumstances he would not have anything against refueling Russian ships, but is now extremely concerned that “they could be used for attacks on Aleppo.” Similar statements were made by politicians and military personnel from the UK and the USA. As a result, the Spanish Foreign Ministry announced that it was “reconsidering the decision based on the results of consultations.”

The European Union received the news from Madrid with enthusiasm. “The EU clearly and unanimously condemns Russia’s systematic bombing of civilians in Aleppo - Russia is prolonging the suffering of the Syrian people and preventing a solution to the problem,” said Guy Verhofstadt, the former Prime Minister of Belgium, leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) faction in the European Parliament, hypocritically. .

Meanwhile, some military experts point out that the upcoming arrival of the Admiral Kuznetsov group in Syria is unlikely to radically change the balance of power in the region. The same French are using their only aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, in the Syrian operation. But they don’t have a ground base in Syria, but we have one. At the same time, the arrival of the naval group will undoubtedly allow Russia to increase its combat potential in this region.

What specific tasks are facing our formation off the coast of Syria?

“Russia is creating a naval fist off the coast of Syria, which will not allow the United States to launch a serious strike on Syrian territory,” believes leading expert at the MGIMO Center for Military-Political Studies Mikhail Alexandrov. — In fact, the main task of our naval group is to contain the Americans. They can strike, I believe, only with cruise missiles. And if some of these missiles target our forces in Syria, we will respond by firing our cruise missiles at the US naval force.

Let me remind you that the Mediterranean squadron of the Russian Navy includes two small missile ships of the Black Sea Fleet, Serpukhov and Zeleny Dol (project 21631), armed with Kalibr-NK cruise missiles, which left Sevastopol on October 3.

There is also the heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser "Peter the Great", sailing in a group with the "Admiral Kuznetsov", it has 20 launchers of supersonic missiles P-700 "Granit". On October 16, the Project 949A Antey nuclear submarine cruiser of the Northern Fleet Smolensk successfully fired a Granit missile at a complex coastal target. Such a training could be the final test of this missile system before sending a detachment of warships to Syria.

The launch weight of the 3M-45 rocket of the Granit complex is 7 tons. It can carry either a high-explosive penetrating warhead weighing up to 750 kg, or a special nuclear warhead with a yield of up to 500 kilotons. The firing range, according to various sources, is from 500 to 700 km along a combined trajectory.

So, “Caliber” and “Granit” make it possible to launch strikes from the Syrian coast against a number of US military bases. For example, for the American air base in Italy, for the naval base in Greece, for the British base in Cyprus. Plus, on US bases in the Persian Gulf.

Essentially, with the arrival of our naval group, we will take aim at a large radius around Syria, and this is extremely important. This step sharply reduces the possibility of an unpunished US strike on our forces in Syria, which provide support to the president’s troops Bashar al-Assad.

"SP": - What weapons are on board our submarines that joined the Kuznetsov?

— "Caliber" can be in several versions - both for attacks on ships and against ground targets. I think our submarines carry “Calibers” of all types, and thus have combined weapons.

“SP”: — Will the United States somehow respond to the appearance of our ships near Syria? For example, by sending another carrier strike group to the Mediterranean Sea?

“The appearance of another aircraft carrier group will be a clear signal that the United States is going to attack us.” Then, logically, we need to strike first before the Americans turn around. I think Washington understands this and is unlikely to agree to such an escalation.

Surely the United States understands something else. If it comes to a collision at sea, even two aircraft carrier groups will not provide the Americans with overwhelming superiority over Russian forces. Yet, in addition to the Admiral Kuznetsov, we have an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in Syria - the Khmeimim base. In the event of a naval battle, the Russian Aerospace Forces will engage one American aircraft carrier.

Plus, our submarines have anti-ship cruise missiles. There may not be as many of them as we would like. But to guarantee the sinking of the second US aircraft carrier, there will definitely be enough of them.

Three aircraft carrier groups could provide overwhelming superiority. But placing them in the Mediterranean Sea is, to put it mildly, problematic. There is simply nowhere for such forces to deploy.

However, even in this situation, Russia would have found something to respond to. For example, a strike on NATO forces in Europe.

“SP”: — Spain refused to allow our ships to enter their port to refuel. We could refuel in Malta, but Malta - like Spain - is a member of the EU. How effective are NATO's tactics in creating supply difficulties for us?

— I’m not sure that Admiral Kuznetsov was going to enter Ceuta specifically to refuel. He clearly has enough fuel to reach Syrian Tartus, where the Russian Navy’s logistics center is located.

We did refuel in Spain from time to time. But they did this in order to confirm their presence in the region, and not out of urgent practical necessity. Moreover, individual Russian ships, not aircraft carrier groups, came to Ceuta to refuel.

In the current situation, the Spaniards simply chose not to aggravate relations with their allies, and made it clear that they were not waiting for us.

“SP”: — Will the presence of our ships in Syria bring closer the adoption of political decisions on the Syrian settlement?

- Now, in fact, a lot depends on the presidential elections in the United States, and not on our ship group. The task of the Admiral Kuznetsov and other Russian ships in Syria is to restrain hotheads in the administration President Barack Obama at the last moment before the elections. It cannot be ruled out that the White House was counting on aggravating the situation in Syria, up to a military clash with the Russian Armed Forces, in order to play along Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

It is now clear that it will not be possible to aggravate the situation in Syria with impunity. Otherwise, America will face serious losses...

“According to the strategy and tactics of naval affairs, an aircraft carrier group anywhere in the World Ocean must be covered from the air, as well as control the adjacent underwater and surface space,” notes the former head of the Coastal Forces and Marine Corps of the Black Sea Fleet of the USSR and Russian Navy (1986− 1995) Major General Vladimir Romanenko. “In our case, the Russian naval group is covered from the air by the aircraft of the Admiral Kuznetsov, the surface space is controlled by the large anti-submarine ships Severomorsk and Vice Admiral Kulakov, and the underwater space is controlled by our three submarines.

This, again, is a standard practice that the Americans were the first to introduce. For example, during the Iraq War, two or three American aircraft carrier groups were present in the Persian Gulf. To ensure their safety, the United States controlled the entire underwater space of the bay and blocked the entrance to it with submarine forces.

In my opinion, our naval group is designed to ensure stabilization of the western coast of Syria. Plus, the Russian Aerospace Forces will receive some reinforcement due to the carrier-based aircraft of the Admiral Kuznetsov.

In theory, Russia’s ability to launch missile strikes in Syria will also increase somewhat. But we must understand: such expensive weapons are not exchanged for trifles. It should only be used for very serious purposes. So it is unlikely that it will come to active strikes with cruise missiles on Syrian territory.

But the resumption of strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Syrian Air Force in the Aleppo area, suspended since October 18, is quite possible. I do not rule out that this will happen precisely upon the arrival of our ships in Syria...

The military operation against terrorists in Syria showed the imperfection of the Russian Navy. It will take a lot of time and money to eliminate the identified problems. This opinion is shared by Doctor of Military Sciences, captain of the first rank Konstantin Sivkov.

In an article published in the Military-Industrial Courier magazine, the expert admitted that “the Russian fleet made a tangible contribution to solving the problems facing our group in the region.” But our fleet has plenty of weak points.

One of them is the understaffing of the air group of the heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov. The reason for this was the “lack of trained pilots.” “Obviously, it was the insufficient training of the flight and command personnel that caused two well-known accidents when landing on the deck of a ship, which led to the loss of two fighters, which is a lot for an air group of 14 aircraft,” Sivkov suggested.

In total, during their stay in the combat area, carrier-based aircraft carried out about 420 combat sorties, including about 120 at night. At first glance, this is a lot. But, as it turned out, more than two-thirds of the total number of flights were made from a ground airfield. That is, pilots feel so insecure that they prefer to take off and land not on a ship, but on solid land.

Another problem was the insufficient number of “fully combat-ready ships in the far sea and ocean zones” that the Russian fleet has. The naval strike group that operated off the Syrian coast included, at best, two or three units of the main classes - a cruiser, a large anti-submarine ship and a patrol ship. This showed the whole world that the Russian Navy is poorly prepared for large-scale naval operations.

Strikes with Kalibr-NK and Kalibr-PL cruise missiles on terrorist positions proved effective. But there was some negativity here too. In total, Russian ships carried out 37 firing exercises, during which they fired 180 missiles. Thus, the launches during the military operation “were episodic in nature, used in volleys at long intervals, measured in weeks and months.” This, according to Sivkov, indicates that Russia does not have sufficient reserves of these missiles.

“Our fleet has demonstrated that it is capable of solving the tasks assigned to it in full, but so far only in local wars and armed conflicts that are very limited in scale,” the expert concluded.

On December 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russian military personnel had successfully completed the task of defeating terrorists in Syria, and ordered the withdrawal of a significant part of the military contingent from the territory of the Arab Republic. Last Friday, December 22, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported to Putin on the implementation of the order to withdraw Russian troops from Syria.

Last Saturday, the newest ship of the Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Grigorovich, once again left its native shores and set off on a long voyage. According to the information support department of the Black Sea region, the frigate is included in the permanent formation of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea. Here he will have to carry out tasks within the framework of the goals defined by this Russian naval group. It is possible, experts believe, that the frigate will be involved in ensuring the security of facilities in Syria, including countering attacks like the recent missile attack on the Syrian government airbase of Shayrat. In general, the Russian military fleet is confidently returning to the Mediterranean today. For the last almost four years, he has been constantly representing the St. Andrew's flag in this region of the planet. And since 2016, the forces of the Russian Navy have been participating in the elimination of terrorist groups. Dozens of successful attacks during the operation in Syria were carried out using the powerful weapons of our ships. It is possible that the current campaign of “Admiral Grigorovich” also pursues these goals. In addition, the release of the frigate can also be regarded as an effective way to show some of our “partners” that they are not the only ones who can conquer the Mediterranean waters and coasts. Universal "Grigorovich" The recent commissioning of this ship in the Russian Navy became visible confirmation of the real replenishment of the Russian military fleet with new combat units. The frigate (the lead patrol ship), named after the Russian Minister of Navy in 1911-1917, Ivan Konstantinovich Grigorovich, joined one of the divisions of surface ships stationed on the Black Sea. Moreover, having entered service only in 2016, he had already managed to take part in important affairs of the fleet: he made an inter-naval transition, worked in the Mediterranean Sea to search and detect submarines, took part in artillery firing, and was involved in the international stage of the “Cup” competition sea-2016" within the framework of last year's "International Army Games".
“Admiral Grigorovich” also participated in business visits to the Greek islands of Corfu and Lefkada, where she was involved in events in memory of Fyodor Ushakov. Finally, on November 15, a powerful missile strike was launched from this ship with Caliber cruise missiles against ISIS targets (an organization banned in Russia) in Syria. As the commander of the Russian group of troops in the Syrian Arab Republic, Colonel General Andrei Kartapolov, reported then, all targets identified for this attack were successfully hit. The ship is considered fresh not only in terms of production time, but also in terms of the project, which has become a multifaceted renovation of previous models of similar frigates. Moreover, its current characteristics are optimal for today's fleet. Thus, a power plant with a total capacity of over 56 thousand horsepower allows the ship to accelerate to 30 knots and make transitions to a range of up to 4850 miles. This ship can remain autonomously at sea for at least a month. The range of weapons it carries on board is also impressive. There is a universal ship-mounted Kalibr-NK complex, a 100-mm gun mount, and two six-barreled mounts for firing 30-mm shells. The frigate can carry torpedo weapons (two twin vehicles), destroy underwater objects with a rocket-propelled bomb launcher, hit air targets with missiles of its air defense system, and also take on board a helicopter of the Ka-32 or Ka-27 type with the possibility of storing it in a hidden hangar.
The architecture of the hull and superstructure meets modern requirements for low visibility. In general, frigates of this project are not called multi-purpose ships for nothing. They are capable with equal success of conducting combat operations against surface ships and submarines, repelling air attacks, covering amphibious landings, operating as part of groupings of ships, and also independently - in isolation from the main forces.
St. Andrew's flag in the Mediterranean
The headquarters and operational command of the permanent operational formation of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea in its current form has been operating since 2013. The main tasks are the management of forces performing tasks in a given region, taking into account the emerging military-political situation, anti-submarine and air defense, illumination of near and far surface conditions, performing humanitarian functions, and search and rescue activities.
In fact, the ships of the Russian navy returned to the Mediterranean, having “registered” here on a permanent basis. The force of the formation is controlled from the National Defense Control Center of the Russian Federation. By the way, it was the ships of this formation that from January to June 2014 participated in a joint operation to remove chemical weapons from Syria. The effectiveness of this work was then recognized by all international experts, and in addition to Russia, the operation involved the forces of Norway, Denmark, Great Britain, China... To some extent, the current deployment of the formation can be considered a continuation of the history of the legendary 5th Mediterranean squadron of the USSR Navy, created in 1967 . This formation acted as a counterweight to the 6th Operational Fleet of the US Navy, but in 1992 it was “suddenly” liquidated by the then Russian leadership. Fleet historian, reserve captain 2nd rank Vladislav Kuznetsov notes that the Soviet squadron at that time included up to 80 pennants, including up to 30 surface combatants and 4-5 submarines. In turn, the American fleet sent two aircraft carriers, missile cruisers, at least two dozen escort ships (including destroyers and frigates), as well as at least six multi-purpose nuclear submarines to this region. The composition of the current Russian squadron, of course, more modest than the one that represented our flag during the USSR. But these forces are sufficient to solve the tasks facing the fleet, emphasizes Captain 1st Rank Pavel Yasnitsky, commander of the operational command in the far sea zone. One of the main tasks is to ensure the activities of Russian forces and troops on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic. In recent years, the operational formation of the Navy has included warships and vessels of the Black Sea, Northern and Pacific fleets (the formation has inter-fleet status). These include the heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov, the heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser Pyotr Velikiy, the guards missile cruisers Moskva and Varyag, large anti-submarine and patrol ships, and support vessels.
Geostrategic interests
“The restoration of the permanent presence of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea is not a sign of saber rattling,” Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized back in 2013. - This is a strategically important region. We have our own interests there related to ensuring Russia’s national security.”
“The presence of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean meets the vital interests of our country,” notes military expert Vladislav Shurygin. - In 1992-1993, when our ships left the Mediterranean Sea, it seemed to many that this would be forever. Today, it is absolutely clear that we must have a group of ships here that will perform a whole range of multi-purpose tasks. These ships must be able to protect themselves from air and sea enemies, have a powerful air defense system, and be prepared to protect themselves from an attack from under water. We also need support vessels, in general, all the components are needed. In any case, it is necessary to return to this pool. Let me remind you: it was after we left the Mediterranean that major geostrategic defeats awaited us there.”
Captain 1st Rank, Candidate of Political Sciences, participant in long-distance voyages to the Atlantic, Indian Oceans and the Mediterranean Sea Sergei Gorbachev emphasizes that in our time many geopolitical problems are solved with the help of sea power. “This was demonstrated by local wars in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya . Today, events related to Syria prove this, the expert notes. - The fleet is a tool for solving foreign policy problems. Moreover, the fleet is on a completely different level than in the Cold War era. Modern naval forces of the world's leading powers are ready and capable of solving the problems of “sixth generation wars.” They operate with the help of the “long arm,” fighting without direct contact with the enemy, using high-precision weapons based on new principles and technologies. The US Navy is already practicing the principles of “air-sea operations” - their new operational concept. The world’s fleets, becoming qualitatively new in their composition, are still numerous, and the zone of their permanent presence in the World Ocean is expanding in scope.” Arguments of “Admiral Grigorovich” Today, no one has any doubts about the purpose of Admiral Grigorovich’s current campaign. The other day, the American television channel CNN admitted: the expedition of the Russian frigate is most likely connected with the intention to respond to the attack by Tomahawk cruise missiles on the Shayrat airbase. “Moscow is showing strength, demonstrating its readiness to continue to provide military support to the Syrian government, demonstrating its power and determination,” CNN notes. The channel's journalists also draw attention to the fact that, having launched a missile strike on Russia's ally, the Americans should have expected similar actions from Moscow: this was obvious. And the fact that "Admiral Grigorovich", who had already participated in military operations against militants in Syria, again joined the Russian Navy group in the Mediterranean, can be considered a fairly significant event. “This is a sign indicating that Russia will not abandon its ally, but, on the contrary, will continue to use military force against the opponents of Syria, which is accused of using prohibited weapons of mass destruction.” , - notes CNN. It is worth noting that today we are talking not only about the presence of the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean Sea, but also about the deployment of full-fledged naval bases of our country on the Mediterranean coast. It is known that the decision to form one of them - in Syrian Tartus - has already been made. The former commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Igor Kasatonov, believes that the development of Russian bases in the Mediterranean Sea, in particular in Syria, is necessary. “Basing ships in this area significantly increases the possibility of the operational use of fleet forces, taking into account the fact that several days of passage is located access to the Red Sea through the Suez Canal and Gibraltar, through which ships enter the Atlantic Ocean, which is the operational zone of the Northern and Baltic fleets,” notes the admiral.
In turn, Prokhor Tebin, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council and a candidate of political sciences, is convinced that the actions of the Russian fleet in Syria qualitatively characterize the current state of the Navy. In his article for the magazine “Russia in Global Affairs,” he notes that among the areas of activity of our fleet within the framework of the Syrian operation, a significant place is occupied by control of the air and underwater situation, sea cover of the Khmeimim airbase and the point in Tartus, as well as the delivery of cruise strikes sea-based missiles against terrorist targets. As the expert emphasizes, one of the conclusions that can be drawn from the results of the Navy’s participation in the Syrian campaign is that after a long period of decline in the 1990s and early 2000s, the Russian fleet has now begun to really recover.

The world continues to guess at the tea leaves: is a direct military clash between our and American military machines in Syria possible? This topic became white hot after extremely risky statements were exchanged between US Permanent Representative to the UN Nikki Haley And Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Army General Valery Gerasimov.

Let me remind you: first on March 12, the long-haired brunette Haley, with the simple-minded smile of a provincial waitress, declared from the UN rostrum that her compatriots in uniform were ready, even without any sanction from the world community, to launch missile strikes on the territory of the sovereign Syrian Arab Republic. And to make it clearer what she was talking about, the permanent representative recalled that Washington’s previous similar warning from the same rostrum was followed by real combat operations of the 6th Fleet of the US Navy - the destroyers Porter and Ross fired back with 59 cruise ships on April 7, 2017 Tomahawk missiles at the Syrian Air Force base of Shayrat (Homs province).

The result of that blow, however, turned out to be a laughing stock. According to our military, who promptly went to the destroyed airfield, only 29 US Tomahawks reached the target. Experts explained the disastrous result of the operation for the 6th Fleet by the counteraction of some mysterious, but very effective, latest Russian electronic warfare systems, which knocked most of the missiles off course.

Be that as it may, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, only six old Syrian MiG-23 fighters were destroyed by Tomahawks - along with the concrete shelters in which they stood. There is also a warehouse for material and technical equipment, an educational building, a canteen and a radar station. Not good for a strike of this magnitude.

True, abroad (in particular, in Israel) they insisted that in fact 44 targets were hit in Shayrat. Some of them - twice. Which, of course, was a transparent hint that almost all overseas cruise missiles had completed their tasks. And they don’t care about any Russian electronic warfare.

Who is telling the truth and who is lying is, as usual in war, covered in propaganda fog. Most likely, as usual under such circumstances, both sides are lying. However, no one denied the main and disappointing fact for the Pentagon: the very next day after the attack from the Shayrat airfield, Syrian Air Force planes took to the skies again. Then was it worth shaking the air with Tomahawks?

The new threat of Nikki Haley forces us to talk in such detail about that long-standing story. Because if the US permanent representative is not bluffing, the situation with a new American missile strike may turn out to be qualitatively different. From the context of what has been said, it follows that this time the Pentagon’s target will likely be the Syrian capital Damascus. More precisely, complexes of government buildings and the defense department of this country. And now - and no one in Moscow hides this! — There are many Russian specialists working here. First of all, our representatives at the Center for Reconciliation of Warring Parties and military advisers.

Thus, for the first time, our compatriots also become targets of Haley’s promised missile strikes.

This circumstance forced Moscow to immediately take the lead. The next day, at a conference call at the Russian Ministry of Defense, General Gerasimov left no doubt that Moscow’s response would be tough: “if a threat arises to the Russian military in Syria,” fire will be opened not only on the missiles, but also on their carriers. What does this mean?

The Americans have only two types of cruise missile carriers in the Mediterranean Sea - warships (including nuclear submarines) and aircraft. Therefore, it will be the ships and planes under the Stars and Stripes that will be in the sights of our operational group in Syria. And this is also the first time in the Syrian war.

Can you imagine the situation: one or more destroyers or cruisers of the US Navy are sent to the Mediterranean bottom with high-precision cruise missiles of the Russian Kalibr or Bastion complexes sticking out in their sides? Or after the combat use of the Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missiles, which, as he told humanity Vladimir Putin, since the end of last year have already been suspended under the fuselages of the MiG-31 and are waiting in the wings at one of the airfields of the Southern Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation? The famous Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 will surely seem to the world like cute children's games in the sandbox.

Fully aware of this most dangerous reality, on the same day Gerasimov discussed the emerging situation with his American colleague - Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford. As the official statement succinctly states, “the parties agreed to continue bilateral contacts.” Well, thank God if so. Although no one announced the severance of such contacts, which have been ongoing since 2015. That did not stop the Americans from putting the world on their ears.

Meanwhile, it appears that the escalation is actually continuing. Do you remember how the next day after the missile strike of the 6th Fleet of the US Navy on Shayrat, the Black Sea Fleet missile frigate Admiral Grigorovich with Caliber on board was urgently sent from Novorossiysk to the scene of events? Apparently, then the crew was not given even the minimum necessary time to prepare for combat service. They simply played the preparation “For battle and march.” And - forward!

There was no time to even replenish supplies. The sailors did this already on the move from vessels supporting the permanent operational connection of the Russian Federation in the Mediterranean Sea. Everything looked so extraordinary from the point of view of Moscow.

Something similar is happening these days. The already mentioned lead frigate of Project 11356 “Admiral Grigorovich” has long been off the coast of Syria. To help him, the second and last frigate of the same type, Admiral Essen, urgently left Sevastopol to date.

Unfortunately, another frigate of the same project, Admiral Makarov, was somehow stuck in the Baltic for a suspiciously long time, and after numerous tests and modifications, it was sadly accepted into the Black Sea Fleet just last New Year. Apparently, after the ceremonial signing of the act of transferring the ship to the fleet and the presentation of bonuses to the builders, numerous deficiencies are now being hastily eliminated on the Admiral Makarov. And in Syria he is not our help yet.

I have no doubt at all: if Admiral Makarov had managed to reach its main base before the current most dangerous political crisis, today it would have been urgently pushed from the Sevastopol pier into the Mediterranean Sea.

Where did this fire come from? And all, I believe, because our General Staff understands well: you can make a terrible face towards America as much as you like. But in reality, we have nothing to threaten the 6th Fleet of the US Navy from Syrian soil. Russia has only one or two attack ships in the Mediterranean, as usual in recent years. These “one” and “two” are precisely “Admiral Grigorovich” and “Admiral Essen”. As they say, “The calculation is over.”

Thus, sixteen missiles of the Caliber-NK complex for two. It won’t be enough against even one standard US Navy carrier strike group. After all, such a group consists of an attack aircraft carrier, three or four destroyers and escort missile cruisers, three landing ships with a landing force of marines on board and at least one multi-purpose nuclear submarine. And the other day, a US Navy strike group led by the universal landing ship Iwo Jima also passed through Gibraltar in the direction of Syria. The strike group also includes the amphibious assault ship USS New York, the amphibious assault ship USS Oak Hill and the supply ship USS William McLean. In short, even in theory there are too many targets for two Russian frigates. And this greatly devalues ​​the threats of the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Gerasimov.

How so? After all, at the end of February, the Russian military department reported that “about 15 warships and support vessels operate as part of the permanent operational formation of the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea”? That's right. But you can’t look at the list of specific combat units of this squadron in the light of current events without tears. Everything is sewn according to the principle “Pine from forest”.

In addition to the two mentioned missile frigates, in the Mediterranean Sea today Russia has large landing ships "Caesar Kunikov", "Orsk" and "Minsk", the sea minesweeper "Vice Admiral Zakharyin", the rescue tug vessel SB-739, the floating workshop PM-138 , training ship "Perekop", medium reconnaissance ship "Equator". Well, and something smaller. Like auxiliary ships and Raptor-class patrol boats guarding the Tartus roadstead.

It can be assumed with a high degree of confidence that somewhere in the depths of the Mediterranean Sea, in its eastern part, one or two of our multi-purpose nuclear missile submarines are secretly carrying out combat service today. It's good if at least that's the case. But no one ever officially discloses their presence. Therefore, it is impossible to add the combat potential of submariners to the above.

But be that as it may, against aircraft carriers, this motley squad, you must admit, is somehow not impressive.

You can, of course, still rely on combat aircraft from the Khmeimim airfield. However, its composition has recently been greatly reduced and nothing has yet been heard about a decisive build-up of forces in this direction.

Therefore, it is very likely that, alas, General Gerasimov’s decisive tone towards the Americans cannot be backed up by Moscow with real combat power. Then it turns out that the words of the Chief of the General Staff are a simple shock of air.

As, by the way, happened more than once during the war in Syria. For example, October 6, 2016. On that day, the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense also threateningly and publicly warned the United States: “Any missile attacks on territory controlled by the Syrian government will create a clear threat to Russian military personnel. “I would like to draw the attention of the hotheads that after the September 17 coalition air strike on Syrian troops in Deir ez-Zor, we took all necessary measures to eliminate any such mistakes in relation to Russian military personnel and military facilities on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic.”

Exactly six months later, a missile attack from American destroyers on the Shayrat air base followed. What about us? Never mind. They raised their eyebrows again threateningly.

By the way, our military leadership is certainly aware of the lack of forces of the Russian Navy in this “hot spot” better than anyone else. Apparently, this is why this is not the first time we have driven American cruisers and destroyers away from Syria at the next peak of the crisis in a very unconventional way.

So, last week Moscow issued the so-called “international notice for aviation personnel NOTAM and navigation warning for seafarers.” It said that on Monday, March 12, Russian Navy ships could launch missiles from the waters of the eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Syria. And the exact coordinates of a very wide area dangerous for any ships and aircraft were indicated.

It is natural to assume that the 6th Fleet of the US Navy, in order to avoid trouble, temporarily moved away from the Syrian coast. The shooting did not take place on Monday. But, excuse me, this is our internal matter - to shoot or not to shoot? Conduct exercises or postpone them?

Most likely, on Tuesday the Americans were already anchored in their previous positions. But we got at least a short respite from this war. Perhaps - before the Admiral Essen enters the Mediterranean Sea.

That’s why everything in Syria looks very alarming today. And the analogies with the Cuban Missile Crisis haunt us.